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The RMA Journal March 2012


 
Sovereign Debt and Main Street
 

In January, Standard & Poor’s downgraded its ratings for the sovereign debt of nine euro-zone countries. France and Austria slipped from a AAA to a AA rating, while other struggling nations were further downgraded by one or even two notches. Unfortunately, the rating agency doesn’t believe the situation will improve anytime soon. It assigned a negative outlook for France, Europe’s second largest economy behind Germany, and 13 other nations in the currency bloc, indicating at least a one in three chance of a further downgrade in the next two years.

This is indeed unfortunate news for our European members who are struggling through a deep recession. We all realize that the sovereign debt crisis presents serious challenges for global banks in North America, but it would be a mistake to think that the impacts of this crisis are limited to the large players.

This is a crisis that impacts all of us, whether we’re managing risk at a trillion-dollar bank in North America or at Main Street Bank in Small Town, USA. The world is flat, as Thomas Friedman famously says in his best-selling book by the same name. Even if we don’t have customers overseas, our customers at home may be impacted either directly or indirectly by events on the other side of the Atlantic. In this interconnected world, your customer in Kansas City could be impacted if its revenue sources depend on one or more customers with significant European exposure.

To mitigate the risks that sovereign debt may present to your portfolio, consider the impacts of the following: a strong dollar, weak capital markets but higher capital requirements, and political and regulatory pressures. Stress testing and scenario analysis will give a community bank a better understanding of what it may mean to its portfolio if, say, its steel manufacturing customer loses a third of its revenue from its European-based customers.*

As the dollar emerges stronger during this crisis, U.S. consumers will enjoy lower-priced imports. But your customers who export, and those with significant investments in the euro zone, may experience negative impacts to earnings and investments.

Liquidity strategies should be reviewed in light of the current situation. If you need to fund your institution in the capital markets, you may run into difficulties. Banks with a strong retail customer funding base are more fortunate. The interbank money market will remain credit-sensitive. Counterparty risk management will become increasingly important, and institutions will need to have accurate and timely exposure information and management systems in place.

Also, expect higher capital requirements from regulators on both sides of the Atlantic and from the markets. Those requirements will reduce management’s ability to use leverage, impacting banks’ ability to grow loan volumes, already a challenge in this economy. Political pressure to keep credit flowing will continue.

You can expect also that regulators, rating agencies, and securities analysts will scrutinize the quality of the data used by management in decision making. The annual RMA/AFS Data Quality Surveys continue to show that the industry is far from satisfied with the quality of data used in the credit and portfolio management processes.

A frequent refrain of RMA is that the foundation for strong enterprise risk management is the institution’s risk appetite. Having a well-defined risk appetite that is understood by everyone in the organization is a crucial risk management practice that will help mitigate your risk from this or any other crisis.

This is also a good time to review your operational risk management. Strong operational controls will improve your bottom line through reduced losses, higher productivity, and improved product quality and customer satisfaction.

Risk management may be more complex at the large, global institutions, but risk events that erupt in other parts of the world can also knock at the doors of small banks here at home. v

Jack Wixted, RMA Chair
jacwixted@gmail.com

*To better help you understand these linkages and to build on this important part of the enterprise risk management process, RMA will release two publications later this year. Our Stress Testing Workbook and Risk & Governance Workbook follow the Risk Appetite Workbook published last year. Stay tuned for more details.

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