Standard & Poor’s downgraded its ratings for the sovereign debt of
nine euro-zone countries. France and Austria slipped from a AAA to a
AA rating, while other struggling nations were further downgraded by
one or even two notches. Unfortunately, the rating agency doesn’t
believe the situation will improve anytime soon. It assigned a
negative outlook for France, Europe’s second largest economy behind
Germany, and 13 other nations in the currency bloc, indicating at
least a one in three chance of a further downgrade in the next two
years.
This is indeed unfortunate news for our European
members who are struggling through a deep recession. We all realize
that the sovereign debt crisis presents serious challenges for
global banks in North America, but it would be a mistake to think
that the impacts of this crisis are limited to the large players.
This is a crisis that impacts all of us, whether
we’re managing risk at a trillion-dollar bank in North America or at
Main Street Bank in Small Town, USA. The world is flat, as Thomas
Friedman famously says in his best-selling book by the same name.
Even if we don’t have customers overseas, our customers at home may
be impacted either directly or indirectly by events on the other
side of the Atlantic. In this interconnected world, your customer in
Kansas City could be impacted if its revenue sources depend on one
or more customers with significant European exposure.
To mitigate the risks that sovereign debt may
present to your portfolio, consider the impacts of the following: a
strong dollar, weak capital markets but higher capital requirements,
and political and regulatory pressures. Stress testing and scenario
analysis will give a community bank a better understanding of what
it may mean to its portfolio if, say, its steel manufacturing
customer loses a third of its revenue from its European-based
customers.*
As the dollar emerges stronger during this
crisis, U.S. consumers will enjoy lower-priced imports. But your
customers who export, and those with significant investments in the
euro zone, may experience negative impacts to earnings and
investments.
Liquidity strategies should be reviewed in light
of the current situation. If you need to fund your institution in
the capital markets, you may run into difficulties. Banks with a
strong retail customer funding base are more fortunate. The
interbank money market will remain credit-sensitive. Counterparty
risk management will become increasingly important, and institutions
will need to have accurate and timely exposure information and
management systems in place.
Also, expect higher capital requirements from
regulators on both sides of the Atlantic and from the markets. Those
requirements will reduce management’s ability to use leverage,
impacting banks’ ability to grow loan volumes, already a challenge
in this economy. Political pressure to keep credit flowing will
continue.
You can expect also that regulators, rating
agencies, and securities analysts will scrutinize the quality of the
data used by management in decision making. The annual RMA/AFS Data
Quality Surveys continue to show that the industry is far from
satisfied with the quality of data used in the credit and portfolio
management processes.
A frequent refrain of RMA is that the foundation
for strong enterprise risk management is the institution’s risk
appetite. Having a well-defined risk appetite that is understood by
everyone in the organization is a crucial risk management practice
that will help mitigate your risk from this or any other crisis.
This is also a good time to review your
operational risk management. Strong operational controls will
improve your bottom line through reduced losses, higher
productivity, and improved product quality and customer
satisfaction.
Risk management may be more complex at the large,
global institutions, but risk events that erupt in other parts of
the world can also knock at the doors of small banks here at home.